AIA Semi-Annual Construction Forecast Projects Growth

With construction spending continuing on an upward trajectory, 2016 can be considered a successful year for the nonresidential building sector.  For the coming year, the American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast is projecting growth in overall nonresidential building spending of almost 6 percent, just below the pace of growth for 2016. The commercial construction sectors, retail, office and hotel, will continue to lead the building recovery, while industrial construction is projected to see almost no increase this year. For 2018, the institutional construction sectors will generate much of the growth, particularly the large education structures market.

“Though most conditions look favorable, virtually every segment of the design and construction market is reporting that recruiting and retaining qualified staff is a growing issue,” says AIA chief economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Many workers left the industry during the downturn, and others left the workforce entirely, and rebuilding the workforce is a challenge, particularly when the national unemployment rate is below five percent.”
 
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts

  • Overall nonresidential building
    2017 – 5.6 percent
    2018 – 4.9 percent
  • Commercial/industrial
    2017 – 8.3 percent
    2018 – 4.4 percent
  • Office space
    2017 – 10.6 percent
    2018 – 4.6 percent
  • Hotels
    2017 – 7.2 percent
    2018 – 1.8 percent
  • Retail
    2017 – 6.8 percent
    2018 – 5.3 percent
  • Industrial facilities
    2017 – 0.4 percent
    2018 – 3.3 percent
  • Institutional
    2017 – 5.7 percent
    2018 – 5.8 percent
  • Amusement/recreation         
    2017 – 7.7 percent
    2018 – 4.3 percent
  • Education
    2017 – 6.3 percent
    2018 – 6.7 percent
  • Healthcare facilities
    2017 – 4.9 percent
    2018 – 4.9 percent
  • Public safety
    2017 – -0.7 percent
    2018 – 4 percent
  • Religious
    2017 – -1.9 percent
    2018 – 0.6 percent

Click here to learn more about the Consensus Construction Forecast.

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