The Home Improvement Research Institute, a resource for market research concerning the home and building products industry, has forecast the total U.S. building products market to continue building on exponential growth seen in 2020 and 2021. The total market will grow by an additional 2.9 percent from 2023 through 2025, with the consumer market growing by 2.3 percent and the professional market growing by 4.6 percent. This research was conducted in partnership with IHS Markit and released to HIRI members at the end of Q3 in the biannual Home Improvement Products Market Forecast.
“The home improvement industry had explosive growth during the coronavirus pandemic due primarily to DIY projects, but that may now be driven by pros,” says HIRI Research Director Matthew Craig. “We are glad to now provide the home and building industry some insight into what they can expect as we continue to navigate a post-Pandemic world.”
In the short term, the Forecast predicts the total building products market to grow by 13.0 percent in 2021, with the consumer market growing by 10.8 percent and the professional market growing by 18.2 percent . In 2022, the total building products market is forecast to grow by an additional 2.3 percent, with the consumer market growing by 0.2 percent and the professional market growing by 7.1 percent .
These findings indicate a curtailment of DIY growth as an overall share of home improvement product sales in 2022, as many homeowners completed planned projects throughout this year and the last. However, growth will continue further in the professional products market as COVID-19 restrictions ease and projects once on hold resume. This means demand for certain products will continue to increase in areas where contractor-led projects are high.
“The strong home improvement outlook provided by pandemic behavior has been given new life by this year’s improved employment gains, increased access to vaccinations and additional stimulus measures. All have boosted consumer confidence and the housing market in particular,” says IHS Markit Managing Director Scott Hazelton. “While the boom cannot last forever, a continuing strong economy suggests spending by contractors will actually improve year-over-year as households feel more comfortable with contractors in their home.”
HIRI’s Home Improvement Products Market Forecast further breaks down this growth by segmented merchandise line and location.
Top growing merchandise lines for professionals
Compound annual growth rate for the professional market between 2021-25:
- Siding and exterior trim: 11 percent
- Gypsum & specialty boards: 9.5 percent
- Dimensional lumber & boards: 8.4 percent
- Roofing & supplies: 8.2 percent
- Doors & molding: 8 percent
- Kitchen & bath cabinets: 7.9 percent
- Major household appliances: 7.9 percent
Fastest growing professional markets
Compound annual growth rate in home improvement spending by state between 2021-25:
- Oklahoma: 8.9 percent
- California: 8.7 percent
- New Mexico: 8.6 percent
- Nevada: 8.5 percent
- Texas: 8.5 percent
- Massachusetts: 8.4 percent
- Louisiana: 8.3 percent
- Kentucky: 8.3 percent
- South Carolina: 8.3 percent
- Georgia: 8.3 percent
Average annual growth rates in home improvement spending by region between 2022-25:
- West South Central: 6.2 percent
- Pacific: 6.0 percent
- New England: 5.5 percent
- South Atlantic: 5.5 percent
- Mountain: 4.9 percent
- East North Central: 4.8 percent
- West North Central: 4.5 percent
- Middle Atlantic: 4.4 percent
- East South Central: 4.1 percent
Since 1992, the Home Improvement Products Market Forecast has provided the home improvement industry’s only product-focused size of market study with five?year forecasts for the consumer and professional markets. Product category level detail is provided for the consumer market and, since 2018, for the professional market. Geographic detail is also provided for the nine Census divisions with annual estimates to the state level. The Home Improvement Products Market Forecast is released biannually, in the spring (Q2) and fall (Q3) exclusively to HIRI members.
HIRI members receive unlimited access to Home Improvement Products Market Forecasts and $1 million worth of additional industry research. For industry professionals, publishers, marketing executives and more, HIRI is the top source of data to help guide business decisions. Learn more and join as a member.