The Washington, D.C.-based U.S. Department of Energy report, “Energy Savings Forecast of Solid- State Lighting in General Illumination Applications”, is the latest edition of a biannual report, which models the adoption of LEDs in the U.S. general-lighting market, along with associated energy savings, based on the full potential DOE has determined to be technically feasible over time. The new report uses an updated 2016 U.S. lighting-market model that is more finely calibrated and granular than previous models and extends the forecast period to 2035 from the 2030 limit that was used in previous editions.The new report projects that energy savings from LED lighting will top 5 quadrillion Btus (quads) annually by 2035. Among the key findings:
- By 2035, LED lamps and luminaires are anticipated to hold the majority of lighting installations for each of the niches examined, comprising 86 percent of installed stock across all categories (compared to only 6 percent in 2015).
- Annual savings from LED lighting will be 5.1 quads in 2035, nearly equivalent to the total annual energy consumed by 45 million U.S. homes today and representing a 75 percent reduction in energy consumption versus a no-LED scenario.
- Most of the 5.1 quads of projected energy savings by 2035 will be attributable to two commercial lighting applications (linear and low/ high-bay), one residential application (A-type), and one that crosses both residential and commercial (directional). Connected lighting and other control technologies will be essential in achieving these savings, accounting for almost 2.3 quads of the total.
- From 2015-35, a total cumulative energy savings of 62 quads— equivalent to nearly $630 billion in avoided energy costs—is possible if the DOE SSL Program goals for LED efficacy and connected lighting are achieved.